archer2

Blog

These notes demonstrate our approach and process. We suggest focusing on our process in these examples, as this is repeatable. The specific investment thesis and outcome were unique to that company at the time, hence not repeatable.

Our process is not perfect. We too have experienced unsuccessful investments in the past, like Fingerprint Cards or L Brands in recent years. Here is how we mitigate their impact.

  • Setting the bar high.We don’t buy anything that we don’t see as a likely double in 3-4 years, and without making fantastic assumptions. This eliminates 9 out of 10 opportunities that we investigate.

  • Scaling into positions. We prefer to scale into our investments as new facts demonstrate that our thesis is playing out. This way our capital is weighted towards higher-conviction opportunities.

  • Diligent monitoring. We carefully monitor company evolution against our thesis for each position in our portfolio. If the evidence reveals a “broken thesis” we then move quickly to cut exposure, even if we take a short-term loss.

  • Capital management. We regularly rank our current investments against watchlist opportunities on a risk/reward basis. If a new opportunity is clearly superior to an existing investment, then we re-deploy capital accordingly.

These processes together ensure that we exit unsuccessful investments quickly, and our portfolio evolves towards higher-quality opportunities over time.

Failure Short: Vocus Communications (ASX:VOC)

By Anand Batepati | 13 May 2016

We saw the darling of the Australian stock market for what it was – a house of cards that was close to collapsing under its own weight.

After struggling to survive the short bleed in the early days, we made over 50% in 1-year on our short position.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=100XCIHcIMnkNaFhukoSFGVeBs-DoIhrj

 

High-Quality Long: Infosys (NYSE:INFY)

By Anand Batepati | 12 October 2017

A high-quality, cash-rich services business was available for us to buy at a multi-year bargain price because the hype around the CEO’s resignation caused a market selloff.

We are up 50% on our investment in less than 18 months and are still invested.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PbjdQ9jjZVpHFUsnwSxk6YQ7fv_pykE2/view?usp=sharing

 

Event-Driven Long: Wheelock (HKG:0020)

By Anand Batepati | 16 April 2018

China’s property speculation clampdown caused a brutal sell-off of all things real estate. Like the saying goes, invest when there is blood on the streets.

We doubled our money in a year by finding a baby that was thrown out with the bathwater.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FhZRZxTq-u_j9AfVI1o_Kg4xEFN0eZKY/view?usp=sharing

 

Margin of Safety: Twitter (NYQ:TWTR)

By Anand Batepati | 15 July 2020

We work hard over a long time to evaluate what a business is really worth and then pay a substantially lower price when stock market gyrations give us the opportunity to do so.

We think that Twitter today is both a fantastic social network and a complete mess of a business. Let me outline why Twitter offers no margin of safety at stock prices in July 2020.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/growing-your-wealth-turbulent-times-margin-safety-anand-batepati/

 

Stocks That Generate Millionaires

By Anand Batepati | 19 August 2020

Everybody has heard of Apple and Amazon – stocks that have generated millionaire shareholders. What about Asian Paints, Mercado Livre, MTY Foods, Geely Auto? These then-unknown names too have generated many millionaire shareholders over the years.

Our webinar on how we invest in compounders at GFM Focus was put on Youtube by The Tactical Brief from Germany.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spr0inyGfeE

 

Dell Technologies (NYQ:DELL)

By Anand Batepati | 21 August 2020

I view Dell’s stock right now as a “heads I win the jackpot, tails I lose very little” type of investment. This is the very characterization of a margin of safety.

Our long investment thesis on Dell Technologies was published in Barron’s, the sister publication of The Wall Street Journal, in August 2020.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-dell-technologies-shares-can-gain-42-portfolio-manager-51598018172

 

How To Build A Fortune Through Investing: Business Quality

By Anand Batepati | 21 Oct 2020

“Business quality” is a vague sounding term, but it is the most powerful source of wealth generation through investment.

We illustrate this concept with a simple example comparing Apple and Exxon Mobil in this article.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-build-fortune-through-investing-business-quality-anand-batepati/

 

What is Value Investing? It is NOT About Buying Low P/E Stocks

By Anand Batepati | 30 Oct 2020

Cheap Stock ≠ Value Stock ≠ Good Investment

Expensive Stock ≠ Growth Stock ≠ Bad Investment

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-value-investing-buying-low-pe-stocks-anand-batepati/?trackingId=oJXW17BIRDCHOe8NkcIVRA%3D%3D